Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 27 2023 09:49:47

ACUS48 KWNS 270949
SWOD48
SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the
early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level
moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally
confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should
pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest,
eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day
6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much
of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the
inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to
support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that
enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to
support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model
uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the
progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface
low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests
predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for
Thursday and Friday.

...Gleason.. 01/27/2023

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