Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 27 2023 06:01:46

ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward Saturday across
parts of TX into the ArkLaTex ahead of a southward-advancing cold
front. Enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow over the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley will be tied to two somewhat distinct jet
streams, which should tend to merge with time Saturday night. A
stout low-level capping inversion will likely suppress convective
potential across the developing warm sector through much of the day,
and probably most of Saturday evening as well. Ascent associated
with a persistent south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to
eventually encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development
across parts of east TX into LA/AR and vicinity Saturday night. This
activity will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable
layer. MUCAPE should remain fairly muted owing to the incomplete
low-level moisture return, but values up to 500-750 J/kg may support
some small hail with the more robust updrafts given the strong
deep-layer shear expected.

...Gleason.. 01/27/2023

$$

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