Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 26 2023 12:23:45

ACUS01 KWNS 261223
SWODY1
SPC AC 261222

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the continental
United States today or tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, gently cyclonic to zonal flow will exist across
the southern tier of the CONUS, south of a strongly positively
tilted mean trough from the Great Lakes to northwestern MX.  A
surface cold front was drawn at 11Z from Atlantic waters offshore of
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, across southern FL, to the
southeastern Gulf.  As this front proceeds across the remainder of
southeastern FL through the next few hours, some diurnal/diabatic
destabilization in the moist boundary layer to its east may boost
MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg.  However, weakness of both frontal lift
and midlevel lapse rates, in tandem with strong drying/entrainment
likely in midlevels, will mitigate updraft strength more than
parcel-theory CAPE alone may indicate.  Lightning potential, while
non-zero, appears too isolated and conditional for a 10%
general-thunder area.

...Edwards.. 01/26/2023

$$

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