Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 26 2023 09:57:08

ACUS48 KWNS 260957
SWOD48
SPC AC 260955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Beneath a confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies,
cold surface ridging appears likely to overspread much of the
central and eastern U.S. late this weekend into early next week.  By
Tuesday morning, the baroclinic zone demarcating the leading edge of
the deeper cold air may extend from the lee of the southern
Appalachians through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states and
the Ark-La-Tex into the Texas South Plains.  However, the surface
front on the shallow leading edge of the cold air may extend across
the Gulf coastal plain, beneath a continuing return flow of Gulf
moisture around the northwestern periphery of the persistent
subtropical ridging.

Around this same time, medium-range ensemble output indicates that
initially prominent eastern Pacific ridging will begin to weaken
more substantively.  As the split flow over the Pacific trends less
amplified into North America, the downstream Arctic low and
subtropical high are forecast to gradually shift east of the Hudson
Bay and Caribbean vicinities, respectively, through the latter
portion of next week.

Based on the 26/00Z ECMWF, there may be a little more uncertainty
concerning whether an initially vigorous short wave trough digging
into the Southwest is forced into and through the confluent regime
to the east of the Rockies, or remains a bit more cut-off and
maintains strength, before coming in phase with the subtropical
stream and progressing to the east of the Rockies later next week.
However, even this solution suggests that associated surface
cyclogenesis (along the frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity) will remain rather modest through at least 12Z next
Friday. The lack of stronger cyclogenesis is expected to remain a
considerable limiting factor to potential for organized severe
thunderstorm development through this period.

...Kerr.. 01/26/2023

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