Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jan 26 2023 08:21:38 ACUS03 KWNS 260821 SWODY3 SPC AC 260820 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ....Synopsis... The amplified mid-level ridging near the North American Pacific coast may reach peak amplitude by the beginning of the period, but models suggest that this will generally be maintained Saturday through Saturday night. Within the split northerly downstream flow, one vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging near the Pacific coast, as far south as southern Oregon/northern California by 12Z Sunday. A couple of more modest perturbations may dig within another branch, across the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes and Prairies into the central international border vicinity. Across the U.S. Rockies, into the Atlantic Seaboard, the westerly to southwesterly mid-level flow may trend more strongly confluent. There may be some further building of ridging across the Gulf Coast states, to the north of the subtropical high centered over the Caribbean, as a vigorous impulse pivots across Hudson Bay, to the southwest of the center of a deep Arctic low. In association with these developments, cold surface ridging will continue to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, with the leading edge of the Arctic air overtaking an initial weak low and surface troughing across the central Great Plains, and advancing as far south as northwest Texas, the Red River Valley and Ozark Plateau by late Saturday night. Preceding this front, a moistening return flow may continue to develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and Texas coastal areas toward the Ark-La-Tex and Ozark Plateau. ....Texas coast into Arkansas... The leading edge of the moisture return, elevated above a substantive near-surface inversion layer across northeastern Texas and northern Louisiana into Arkansas, is expected to contribute to weak destabilization by late Saturday evening. Aided by lift associated with warm advection along the southerly low-level jet, and perhaps a mid-level perturbation migrating around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging, this may support increasing thunderstorm development Saturday night. Even southward across the upper Texas coastal plain, a shallow residual near-surface stable layer may linger beneath the moisture return and associated cloud cover. Inhibition beneath warm layers aloft also will tend to suppress thunderstorm development. However, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered thunderstorm development might not be out of the question toward daybreak Sunday. If this occurs, instability in the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and shear might become sufficient to support organized convection capable of producing hail and gusty winds. However, enough uncertainties linger to keep severe probabilities at less than 5 percent, at least for now. ...Kerr.. 01/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .