Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 26 2023 00:18:09

FOUS30 KWBC 260018
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Jan 26 2023 - 12Z Thu Jan 26 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area over portions of the Northeast
U.S. as southerly flow ahead of a well defined cold front
continues to draw deeper Atlantic moisture towards the
coast...with a corresponding increase in precipitable water
values. Latest model runs still support their earlier solutions of
increasing flow and precipitable water values this evening and
into the overnight hours...with the potential for brief training
of convection that results in 1 inch per hour rainfall
rates...especially as divergent/difluent flow aloft increases.=20
Probabilities from the 18Z HREF showed little chance for 1 inch
per hour rates before 26/06Z. After that...the risk of 1 inch per
hour rates develops across portions of Long Island and eventually
expands into coastal Southern New England.  The probabilities peak
at a little under 10 percent between 08Z and 10Z at which point
most of the heavy rainfall gets shunted eastward and out to sea. b
Therefore...there is low-end potential for flash flood guidance
being exceeded on a 3- or 6-hour time scale with localized
flooding possible as a result with snow melt across southern New
England a contributing factor.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 26 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023 - 12Z Sat Jan 28 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6HDVzVaWR7S4wYTuA5-532OKrrmcEmjWvC7AuB4NOFvX=
YmhqmopMezP3CvysN0dZUYscyh7donzQZ5b_4ikX01jG7Vs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6HDVzVaWR7S4wYTuA5-532OKrrmcEmjWvC7AuB4NOFvX=
YmhqmopMezP3CvysN0dZUYscyh7donzQZ5b_4ikX4DK616o$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6HDVzVaWR7S4wYTuA5-532OKrrmcEmjWvC7AuB4NOFvX=
YmhqmopMezP3CvysN0dZUYscyh7donzQZ5b_4ikX-_I4T4Q$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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