Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 19:42:05 ACUS01 KWNS 251941 SWODY1 SPC AC 251940 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... A couple of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a tornado or two will remain possible, mainly along the Carolina Coastline this evening. A damaging gust is also possible across northern Florida through the rest of the afternoon. ....20Z Update... The Slight risk was removed from portions of southern Georgia into northern Florida. Buoyancy has either diminished or remained scant across this region (with no more than 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE) amid decreasing deep-layer ascent. Veering surface winds will also decrease convergence along the convective line and reduce hodograph size/shape, further limiting the severe threat. However, the Slight Risk has been maintained along the Carolina Coastline, where the northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints remains possible late this afternoon into early evening. Some of the latest HRRR guidance suggests low-topped supercells may initiate just off of the coast. However, any westward development of storms may support a low-end threat for a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado given the presence of a strong low-level jet and associated large, curved hodographs. ...Squitieri/Leitman.. 01/25/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023/ ....Synopsis... A surface low across the OH Valley will continue to translate northeast toward the Northeast as the mid-level longwave trough deepens across the eastern U.S. today. A surface cold front and associated line of deep-moist convection continues to progress across the Southeast and should reach the Atlantic Seaboard by evening. Adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear ahead of the convective line should promote strong thunderstorm potential, with some severe threat evident. ....South Carolina into northern Florida Today... A squall line continues to progress eastward across western SC into northern FL, with a history of occasional damaging gusts and more recently, a brief tornado south of TLH. Latest guidance consensus continues to show modest moisture overspread by mediocre tropospheric lapse rates, contributing to thin SB/MLCAPE profiles (with no more than a couple hundred J/kg expected). In addition, the departure of the surface low suggests that deep-layer and low-level shear should gradually weaken with time. While a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps another tornado or two remain possible, the severe threat should gradually temper by late afternoon. ....Portions of eastern North Carolina late this afternoon... Later this afternoon, the axis of the low-level jet should become focused across the eastern Carolinas, leading to the advection of relatively rich low-level moisture and an increase in both deep-layer ascent and deep/low-level shear. The coupling of strong southwesterly low-level flow and westerly mid-level flow will contribute to sizeable, curved hodographs. Nonetheless, latest point-forecast sounding analysis suggest that buoyancy will still be scant at best toward the shoreline. If stronger storms manage to develop onshore, a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .