Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 12:53:59 ACUS01 KWNS 251253 SWODY1 SPC AC 251252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from the Florida coastal bend area this morning to the eastern Carolinas and west-central/northern Florida this afternoon. A couple tornadoes also are still possible this morning over the coastal Florida Panhandle, and this afternoon in the eastern Carolinas. ....Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large-scale trough over the central CONUS will deamplify somewhat as the main/embedded perturbation ejects away. Cyclonic flow from the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains to the Carolinas will be maintained as a series of shortwaves of varying magnitudes traverses that belt. The leading trough -- now evident moisture-channel imagery from southeastern MO to southeast TX -- will weaken as it moves northeastward away from the mean trough and across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys today. The perturbation should cross the northern Mid-Atlantic region late overnight. As the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over southwestern KY, with occluded/cold front arching across middle TN, northeastern/ south-central AL, to the north-central/west-central Gulf. The low will move northeastward to near CLE by 00Z, while the cold/occluded front reaches northern VA, the western/central Carolinas, southern GA, and the northeastern/south-central Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, the front should be offshore all but southernmost FL and perhaps Cape Cod. The bulk of convection should remain ahead of the surface cold front. A quasistationary to warm "wedge" front was evident across central GA and coastal SC, and should diffusely/erratically shift northward through the day. ....Northeastern Gulf Coast to Carolinas... A band of strong-severe thunderstorms should continue to shift eastward across remaining parts of the FL Panhandle and northwestern FL, as well as into southern GA, through the remainder of the morning. That part of this line interacting with the vorticity-rich warm-frontal zone near the coast -- where surface-based buoyancy and at least marginally favorable low-level lapse rates are present -- will continue to offer tornado potential for a few more hours. A few brief radar tornado-detection signatures have been noted so far in the QLCS/warm-frontal interaction regime over the west-central FL Panhandle. See tornado watch 30 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term guidance. Based on somewhat faster timing of the line than suggested by guidance available for the last outlook, the slow northeastward/ inland progress of the warm front, and the lack of surface-based destabilization in parts of central GA, western parts of the outlook probabilities are being trimmed/packed eastward. Boundary-layer warm/moist advection and muted diurnal heating are expected to gradually destabilize an initially unfavorable air mass over remaining parts of southern GA and especially the eastern Carolinas through this afternoon, as the strongly forced band of convection continues to move across the region. After a relative lull later this morning, that process should support increasing potential for momentum leading to strong-severe gusts to be transported to the surface by downdrafts across the short vertical distance beneath the intense LLJ. A relative min in instability will be realized across much of GA with trajectories emanating from lower theta-e over the FL Peninsula, beneath weak midlevel lapse rates. MLCAPE up to about 250 J/kg is possible from there across inland areas of the Carolinas on the lower Piedmont/upper coastal plain. Closer to the coast, a modifying Atlantic boundary layer will advect at least a slight distance inland, as the wedge front erodes northward, with dewpoints in the 60s F supporting MLCAPE increasing to the 300-800 J/kg this afternoon across the CHS-HSE corridor. In concordance with greater buoyancy eastward toward the Atlantic Coast, some organization/ reorganization of the line and associated severe-gust potential should increase. In addition, strong low-level shear will be present, supporting potential for a tornado or two in the QLCS again. Marginal severe potential will extend down the line as far as coastal west-central FL this evening, where veering flow will weaken low-level shear but also increase local theta-e, before deep-layer support weakens and the line weakens. ...Edwards/Goss.. 01/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .