Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 09:37:58 ACUS48 KWNS 250937 SWOD48 SPC AC 250936 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that at least a couple of short wave impulses will dig to the lee of an initially amplified mid-level ridge and embedded high over the northeastern Pacific, and contribute to a consolidating larger-scale short wave trough digging across portions of California and the Great Basin by late this coming weekend. Thereafter, it appears that the ridging may weaken, or at least become less prominent, and the downstream trough should begin to accelerate eastward. Before it does, though, it still appears that westerly to southwesterly downstream mid-level flow will trend more confluent across and east of the Rockies, between a persistent subtropical high centered near the Caribbean and a more prominent mid-level low initially near or just northeast of Hudson Bay, before beginning to shift eastward later in the period. Associated with these developments, a substantive cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is probable over the weekend, with cold surface ridging then generally being maintained across much of the interior of the U.S. through the remainder of this period. In the wake of a preceding cold front, a return flow of modifying Gulf air may gradually continue to develop across the Gulf Coast states. This may contribute to destabilization supportive of convective development inland of the Gulf coast as early as this weekend. However, this probably will remain rooted above a residual potentially cool/stable near-surface air mass with generally low severe weather potential. As the shallow leading edge of the subsequent cold intrusion tends to undercut the return flow, and the upstream short wave trough emerging from the Southwest tends to become sheared and weaken within the confluent mid-level regime, potential for substantive cyclogenesis supportive of an organized severe weather threat still appears low through at least the middle of next week. ...Kerr.. 01/25/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .