Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 08:28:25

FOUS30 KWBC 250828
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 25 2023 - 12Z Thu Jan 26 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...

The upper level trough responsible for heavy rainfall in the Lower
Mississippi Valley yesterday will phase with a northern stream
trough and spread precipitation into the eastern third of the
country today. Guidance appears to highlight two areas of
particular concern. A complex of thunderstorms moving through the
Florida panhandle will likely be enhanced by a strong cold front
succeeding it. Instability will be shallow in northern Florida and
Georgia, but a 50-60kt low level jet out of the south should
supply ample moisture, on the order of 1-1.75in PWATs, into the
region. That being said, soils will be relatively dry and Flash
Flood Guidance fairly high so the threat of flash flooding should
remain marginal. The heavy rainfall should subside over the
Southeast by early this evening.

Precipitation will begin as snowfall this morning in the Northeast
before transitioning into rain this afternoon and evening. The
aforementioned surface low will reintensify as it lifts through
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 60-70kt 850mb winds out of the
south will overrun a warm front and supply anomalous moisture into
the Northeast coast early Thursday morning. PWATs will be around
1-1.25in, representing 3-4 standard deviations above normal. Rain
rates between 0.1-0.25 won't be too high, but moderately saturated
soils and low FFGs could support instances of isolated flash
flooding over vulnerable surfaces, including, but not limited to,
urban areas.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 26 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ElzmRC7S3NdZ-sCngZXsqwxPmlGs9FZsOtiDFi1fwTs=
LMTLnEXS_3jxFZG10lJsrdFKPwtoXLvVWhr1IQAuuGBSFgE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ElzmRC7S3NdZ-sCngZXsqwxPmlGs9FZsOtiDFi1fwTs=
LMTLnEXS_3jxFZG10lJsrdFKPwtoXLvVWhr1IQAuV0HVJE4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ElzmRC7S3NdZ-sCngZXsqwxPmlGs9FZsOtiDFi1fwTs=
LMTLnEXS_3jxFZG10lJsrdFKPwtoXLvVWhr1IQAuB4Ug-UQ$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.