Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 07:20:59

ACUS03 KWNS 250720
SWODY3
SPC AC 250720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.

....Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the mid-level ridging centered over
the Caribbean from Thursday into Friday.  Meanwhile, in higher
latitudes, a much more prominent mid-level low will persist to the
northeast of Hudson Bay, downstream of a mid-level high that may
redevelop a bit farther northward across the northeastern Pacific,
closer to the Gulf of Alaska.

Between these features, amplifying flow, with an increasingly
northerly component emanating from the northwestern Canadian Arctic,
likely will continue to evolve inland of the Pacific coast through
much of western North America.  Within one branch of westerlies
emerging from this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast
to turn east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies, before progressing
to the north of the central international border area and Great
Lakes region (to the south of the Arctic low).  In its wake, cold
surface high pressure will build to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies, with the leading edge of the Arctic air also
advancing through much of the Upper Midwest by 12Z Saturday.

In the wake of a more modest preceding cold front reaching the
western Atlantic and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, surface ridging is
expected to shift across the Gulf Coast vicinity into the Southeast,
while modest surface troughing develops to the lee of the southern
Rockies.  It appears that this will be accompanied by modestly
moistening southerly return flow through the lower Rio Grande
Valley/lower into middle Texas Gulf coast vicinity Friday night.
However, beneath low amplitude mid/upper ridging building across the
northwest Gulf coast, a prominent warm layer aloft is forecast to
cap any low-level destabilization.

...Kerr.. 01/25/2023

$$

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