Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 05:53:58 ACUS01 KWNS 250553 SWODY1 SPC AC 250552 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... The potential for damaging thunderstorm winds will exist across parts of the Southeast today. A few tornadoes will be possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia early in the day, and over the eastern Carolinas by late afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS today. An embedded shortwave trough will progress northeastward from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley through the day, reaching the lower Great Lakes and Northeast tonight. At the surface, the primary surface low will likewise develop northeastward across the OH Valley through the day, with a trailing cold front expected to sweep east-southeastward over the Southeast and East Coast states through the period. A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the Carolinas this afternoon, with generally upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints in place across the warm sector. ....Florida Panhandle into Southern Georgia... A line of convection will likely be ongoing this morning across the FL Panhandle into southwestern GA. Even though MLCAPE is forecast to remain quite weak (generally 500 J/kg or less), low-level shear should be quite strong. Aided by a 45-55+ kt southerly low-level jet, 0-1 km SRH of 300-400+ m2/s2 should be common this morning across southern GA into the rest of the FL Panhandle ahead of the ongoing thunderstorms. This rather strong low-level shear will support a continued risk for tornadoes this morning across this region. Damaging winds with the line will also be possible given the enhanced low-level flow. Convection should eventually weaken with eastward extent across north FL and coastal/southeast GA this afternoon, as it outpaces the better low-level moisture return and encounters a less unstable boundary layer. Still, isolated damaging winds may occur even as thunderstorms weaken as they move across parts of the FL Peninsula. ....Carolinas... A plume of low to mid 60s surface dewpoints is expected to stream northward from the Atlantic across the eastern Carolinas by late this afternoon. A shallow, low-topped line of convection should spread eastward across this region through the evening while gradually strengthening as it encounters the greater surface dewpoints. Damaging wind potential is evident with the broken line, as 850 mb flow increases into the 50-60+ kt range and low-level shear likewise strengthens. 0-1 km shear of 300-400+ m2/s2 will easily support potential for embedded circulations and a few tornadoes within the line, especially across eastern/coastal NC this evening. ...Gleason/Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .