Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 05:16:57 ACUS02 KWNS 250516 SWODY2 SPC AC 250515 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ....Synopsis... While mid-level subtropical ridging maintains strength and centered across the Caribbean through this period, models indicate that a much more prominent mid-level low in the Arctic latitudes will linger to the northeast of Hudson Bay. However, within the westerlies to the south of this low, it does appear that consolidating troughing will shift east-northeast of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, through much of the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. In association with a remnant, embedded vigorous short wave impulse, strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from southern New England coastal areas across and northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, upstream, a prominent mid-level high, initially to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast, appears likely to redevelop northwestward across the northeastern Pacific, within larger-scale ridging building northward into Alaska. To the east of this feature, mid-level flow is forecast to take on an increasingly northerly component from the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes through the western and central U.S. international border area. Within this regime, one digging short wave impulse probably will be accompanied by another significant surface cyclone across the Canadian Prairies into the U.S. Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. A cold front trailing the lead cyclone will advance away from the Atlantic Seaboard and through the remainder of the southern Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico Thursday through Thursday night. In its wake, downslope warming is probable from the Rockies into the Great Plains, but this will occur in advance of a much stronger cold intrusion trailing the cyclone emerging from the Canadian Prairies. ....South Florida... Along and ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, a deepening moist surface-based layer may contribute to convective development with daytime heating Thursday. It might not be out of the question that some of this activity could briefly become capable of producing lightning, particularly near Atlantic coastal areas. However, thunderstorm development is generally expected to be suppressed by a lingering warm layer evident in forecast soundings around 500 mb. Overall, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10 percent. ...Kerr.. 01/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .