Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 25 2023 00:56:57 ACUS01 KWNS 250056 SWODY1 SPC AC 250055 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a few tornadoes still appear likely tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal/southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A strong tornado remains possible as well. ....01Z Update... An upper trough will pivot northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South tonight. A related surface low centered over LA this evening will likewise develop across MS into western TN/KY through the end of the period. Appreciable low-level moisture return will remain confined along/south of a warm front, which is forecast to advance only slowly northward across southern portions of LA/MS/AL into the FL Panhandle. Greater surface-based thunderstorm potential should remain along and south of the warm front tonight, where surface dewpoints can increase into the low to mid 60s. A broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening across southern LA. Cells embedded within this line have a history of producing tornadoes across the Upper TX Coast into southwestern LA earlier today. Current expectations are for this activity to continue posing a threat for tornadoes this evening across parts of southern LA into southern MS, as low-level shear remains very strong per recent mesoanalysis estimates and the VWP from KLIX. A strong tornado remains a possibility. The main limiting factor continues to be marginal instability (reference 00Z LIX sounding), but any thunderstorm that can remain surface-based will clearly have the potential to rotate and produce a tornado. This tornado threat should be maximized with any supercell that can remain semi-discrete within or just ahead of the broken line. Otherwise, damaging winds will also remain a concern given the strength of the low-level flow. See Mesoscale Discussion 99 for more details on the short-term severe threat across southern LA. A band of convection will eventually spread into southern/coastal AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Short-term guidance remains insistent that sufficient low-level moisture will move inland across these areas to support weak boundary-layer instability and a continued threat for tornadoes and damaging winds overnight, as low-level and deep-layer shear will remain quite strong. A strong tornado appears possible with this activity as well. ...Gleason.. 01/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .