Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0097
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 24 2023 21:44:22

ACUS11 KWNS 242144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242143=20
LAZ000-242345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Areas affected...Southern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 242143Z - 242345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado risk will increase this evening across southern LA
and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A strong shortwave trough continue to move across the
southern Plains, with robust low-level wind fields and strong
low-level mass response ahead of this wave across southeast TX into
southern LA. This system has contributed to tornado-producing,
line-embedded supercells across the middle/upper TX coast this
afternoon. The line continues to push eastward into far west-central
LA and far southeast TX/Golden Triangle.=20

Expectation is for this line to continue eastward, potentially
bringing a tornado threat into more of southern LA. Additionally,
persistent and strong warm-air advection may contribute to more
cellular development ahead of the main line. These leading storms
may be able to deepen/maturing as the low-level air mass improves
during the next few hours. All of these factors will contribute to
an additional tornado risk this evening across southern LA and a
Tornado Watch will likely be needed.

...Mosier/Hart.. 01/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!56_ObySOdOFfJPtqCGLogB664FEM6tpeoTyKI2j7WwwPRWhReIpnZKT0gISv0of2QzlhL38lg=
JGR0FCByHGLdOfGnr0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29899329 30399314 30599225 30589151 30549097 30339074
            30049069 29659085 29519135 29549194 29619268 29899329=20


=3D =3D =3D
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