Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 24 2023 17:29:51 ACUS02 KWNS 241729 SWODY2 SPC AC 241728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... A risk for damaging winds will exist across parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. Isolated tornadoes will be possible over the eastern Carolinas by late afternoon, and from the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia early in the day. ....Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will exist over much of the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, with a strong leading wave moving from the OH Valley into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Low pressure will move from KY into OH during the day, with a cold front pushing east toward the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift rapidly north across GA and the Carolinas, with 60s F dewpoints. Warm advection will be aided by a strong 50-70 kt low-level jet overspreading the warm sector. ....FL Panhandle into southern GA... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front near the AL/GA border and into the Gulf of Mexico. MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist early Wednesday, with SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 common. This will support a tornado risk, as well as damaging winds with the line. As the main upper system lifts away, the primary tornado risk is expected to maximize in the 12Z to 18Z time frame, with less SBCAPE farther east into northern FL. Still, a few severe gusts may occur during the afternoon as the frontal convection shifts east and boundary-layer wind speeds remain strong. Midlevel lapse rates will become poor, limiting storm severity. ....Carolinas... A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will stream northward off the Atlantic and into the eastern Carolinas during the afternoon as a line of convection approaches from the west. These storms are expected to increase in intensity as they encounter the higher dewpoints, resulting in severe wind and tornado potential, perhaps in QLCS fashion. Effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 is expected over eastern NC. Forecast soundings suggest dewpoints at or above 65 will clearly support surface-based inflow. ...Jewell.. 01/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .