Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 24 2023 09:34:17

ACUS48 KWNS 240934
SWOD48
SPC AC 240932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range ensemble output indicates that the center of persistent
subtropical ridging will maintain strength, with westward
development possible across the Caribbean through this period.  At
the same time, the center of a prominent mid-level low over the
northeastern Canadian Arctic may redevelop a bit farther
southwestward into Hudson Bay, before gradually turning east of the
Hudson Bay vicinity.  In between these features, it still appears
that mid-level flow will trend increasingly confluent across and
east of the Rockies late this coming weekend into early next week,
downstream of a persistent blocking pattern over the eastern
Pacific.

In the wake of a significant cold intrusion to the lee of the
Rockies over the weekend, cold surface ridging probably will be
maintained to the east of the Rockies, with the primary frontal zone
becoming quasi-stationary across the Gulf into south Atlantic Coast
states vicinity.  While a return flow from the western Gulf of
Mexico may develop around the periphery of the subtropical high,
cyclogenesis along the front appears likely to remain weak, with
moisture return and forcing supportive of the most substantive
convective potential largely focused above the cool/stable air to
the north of the surface front.

...Kerr.. 01/24/2023

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