Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 24 2023 08:26:43

FOUS30 KWBC 240826
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 25 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A potent and fast moving upper-level low will swing through the
Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today. Strong jet dynamics
should support a strong and progressive surface low pressure
system propagating from southern Texas through the central Gulf
Coast through early Wednesday morning. The upper trough will tap
into a reservoir of Gulf moisture (PWATs between 1-2in) and send
it streaming into southeastern Texas and the central Gulf Coast.

A line of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to
initiate somewhere in southeastern Texas and spread eastward along
the Gulf coast where they will encounter some decent instability,
with MUCAPE hovering between 500-1000J/Kg, along the immediate
coastlines of Texas and Louisiana. A southerly low level jet at
around 60kts will provide ample shearing for these fast moving
storms. Rainfall rates between 0.75-1.5in/hr over saturated soils
and the presence of low FFG will amplify flash flooding concerns
for the area encompassed by the Slight Risk. There's potential for
parts of the central Texas coast and points inland to over perform
their QPF, particularly within thunderstorms, due to favorable
dynamics and instability this afternoon. First Guess ERO fields
and a number of local offices supported the risk areas drawn for
this day 1 outlook.

Kebede


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sI0VrlD3sBMet9Ccj13Vo05cFGsQdg91_a8caZkGgnI=
elLcA1NH-22ljk9It5ynImZsokUBeO8GJHY-GFfSYZSOOaw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sI0VrlD3sBMet9Ccj13Vo05cFGsQdg91_a8caZkGgnI=
elLcA1NH-22ljk9It5ynImZsokUBeO8GJHY-GFfSp7Rplf8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sI0VrlD3sBMet9Ccj13Vo05cFGsQdg91_a8caZkGgnI=
elLcA1NH-22ljk9It5ynImZsokUBeO8GJHY-GFfSSBXQhjk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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