Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 24 2023 07:55:17 ACUS03 KWNS 240755 SWODY3 SPC AC 240754 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging, centered near the Caribbean, will generally maintain strength through this period. In the higher latitudes, the center of a broad, deep mid-level low may remain northeast of Hudson Bay, but larger-scale cyclonic flow will continue to evolve within a branch of westerlies to its south, across the Great Lakes through the Canadian Maritimes. In association with a remnant vigorous short wave perturbation within this regime, a significant surface cyclone, initially centered near the New England coast, is forecast to continue deepening while migrating across and northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, models indicate that a prominent mid-level high, initially to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast, will redevelop northwestward across the northeastern Pacific, within larger-scale ridging building northward into Alaska. Between this feature and the Arctic low, mid-level flow emanating from the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to take on an increasingly northerly component into the U.S. Great Plains. One prominent digging impulse within this regime is forecast to be accompanied by another significant surface cyclone across the Canadian Prairies into the U.S. Upper Midwest by late Thursday night. A cold front trailing the lead cyclone will advance away from the Atlantic Seaboard and through much of the remainder of the southern Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico Thursday through Thursday night. In its wake, downslope warming is probable from the Rockies into the Great Plains, but this will occur in advance of a much strong cold intrusion trailing the cyclone emerging from the Canadian Prairies. ....South Florida... A deepening moist pre-frontal surface-based layer may contribute to convective development along and ahead of the front with daytime heating Thursday. It might not be out of the question that some of this could briefly become capable of producing lightning, mainly near Atlantic coastal areas. However, thunderstorm development is generally expected to be suppressed by a lingering warm layer evident in forecast soundings around 500 mb. Overall, thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent. ...Kerr.. 01/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .