Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 23 2023 19:42:15 ACUS01 KWNS 231942 SWODY1 SPC AC 231940 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today and through the overnight hours. ....Southwest States into TX... Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected for much of the day, except for isolated flashes over parts of eastern AZ and NM beneath cold temperatures aloft and with the addition of heating. The more substantial thunderstorm chances will occur after about 09Z tonight into west/west-central TX. Here, an increasing low-level jet will bring in higher theta-e air, resulting in lift and scattered storms. Severe weather is not expected due to only weak elevated instability. ...Jewell.. 01/23/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023/ ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler, stable low-level air will overspread most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for thunderstorm development. The one exception will be portions of the Southwest into western and central TX, where colder temperatures aloft will promote marginal buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent accompanying the first aforementioned mid-level trough. Isolated thunderstorms may form across eastern AZ and western NM mainly during the late afternoon/early evening, with at least scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM into central TX tonight to 12Z Tuesday morning. A lightning flash or two may still occur across portions of the southern FL Peninsula this afternoon with convection along the cold front. However, decreasing low-level convergence and upper-level support suggest that thunderstorm development should be sparse at best, warranting the discontinuation of 10 percent thunder probabilities. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .