Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 23 2023 17:39:45 ACUS02 KWNS 231739 SWODY2 SPC AC 231738 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the middle to upper Texas Coast Tuesday afternoon, spreading into parts of southeastern Louisiana and across coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Damaging winds and several tornadoes are anticipated, with a conditional threat of a strong tornado. ....Synopsis... A deep upper low will move eastward from northern TX during the day into the middle MS Valley by 12Z Wed. Leading this trough will be a 80-100 midlevel jet streak, with extreme 70+ kt 850 mb wind fields translating east across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, low pressure will develop across southeast TX during the day, pivoting northeast across LA and AR overnight. Meanwhile, a warm front will extend east from the low, with mid 60s F dewpoints south of the Houston area. This front will lift north of I-10 in LA after 00Z, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints eventually overspreading southeast LA, and the coastal counties of MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle. A cold front will surge east across the northern Gulf coast states immediately behind the warm front, resulting in a limited warm sector. ....Middle and upper TX Coast - Daytime... Rain and elevated storms will rapidly expand across central TX during the day, with intensification occurring over south-central into southeast TX as the warm sector develops northward. Storms are forecast to become severe after 18Z along the cold front, and warm front intersection where a surface low will develop. Here, dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for surface-based storm inflow, with MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Shear profiles will be extreme, with effective SRH over 500 m2/s2 and near 800 m2/s2 along the warm front south of the Houston area. Supercells will be likely along the developing line of storms near the cold front, and a favored area for strong tornadoes will be as this lift intersects the warm front. Heating is unlikely given the early moisture return and saturated boundary layer, but the extreme shear warrants an outlook for isolated strong tornadoes. ....Southern LA...MS...AL...FL Panhandle - Evening and Overnight... A squall line is forecast to move across the Sabine River around 00Z, progressing across LA and into MS through 06Z. The degree of severe risk will be closely tied to boundary-layer destabilization, and southern parts of the line across southern LA may weaken with time. Damaging winds appear most likely with much of the line, but southern parts of the line will have better access to more unstable air, with conditional tornado risk. SBCAPE will eventually exceed 500 J/kg, with extreme SRH of 400-800 m2/s2 coincident with positive SBCAPE. Additional supercells with tornado threat may develop after 09Z near the warm front/ahead of the cold front from southern AL into the FL Panhandle, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible with MLCAPE > 500 J/kg moving onshore. ...Jewell.. 01/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .