Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 23 2023 16:15:42

ACUS01 KWNS 231615
SWODY1
SPC AC 231614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today and through the overnight hours.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest as a second upper
trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and
associated cooler, stable low-level air will overspread most of the
CONUS, limiting the potential for thunderstorm development. The one
exception will be portions of the Southwest into western and central
TX, where colder temperatures aloft will promote marginal buoyancy
amid deep-layer ascent accompanying the first aforementioned
mid-level trough. Isolated thunderstorms may form across eastern AZ
and western NM mainly during the late afternoon/early evening, with
at least scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM into
central TX tonight to 12Z Tuesday morning. A lightning flash or two
may still occur across portions of the southern FL Peninsula this
afternoon with convection along the cold front. However, decreasing
low-level convergence and upper-level support suggest that
thunderstorm development should be sparse at best, warranting the
discontinuation of 10 percent thunder probabilities.

...Squitieri.. 01/23/2023

$$

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