Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 23 2023 08:29:28

FOUS30 KWBC 230829
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 25 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

The latest guidance has come into much better agreement regarding
the evolution of an upper-level low over the Southern Plains on
Tuesday. A potent upper trough and favorable jet dynamics should
support a fast moving surface low pressure system moving from
southern Texas through the central Gulf Coast Tuesday morning
through early Wednesday. The upper trough will tap into a
reservoir of Gulf moisture (PWATs between 1-2in) and send it
streaming into southeastern Texas and the central Gulf Coast on
Tuesday.

A line of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to
initiate somewhere in southeastern Texas and spread eastward along
the Gulf coast where it will encounter some decent instability
with MUCAPE hovering between 500-1000J/Kg along the immediate
coastlines of Texas and Louisiana. A southerly low level jet at
around 60kts will provide ample shearing for these fast moving
storms. Rainfall rates between 0.75-1.5in/hr over saturated soils
and the presence of low FFG will amplify flash flooding concerns
for the area encompassed by the Slight Risk. The 00z Canadian
regional and ECMWF hourly QPF were favored since they appeared to
capture the magnitude and timing of the rainfall reasonably well.
First Guess ERO fields and a number of local offices supported the
risk areas drawn for this day 2 period.

Kebede

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_qamI8gLU7PGTVqIkrCCwWhg4kQS9cy2TVZSHHz0GqBy=
I2-7HrbblS7Z79o_w8xq5r9WdIFJVlhfShiksP4yueiBwBY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_qamI8gLU7PGTVqIkrCCwWhg4kQS9cy2TVZSHHz0GqBy=
I2-7HrbblS7Z79o_w8xq5r9WdIFJVlhfShiksP4ylGdR-RM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_qamI8gLU7PGTVqIkrCCwWhg4kQS9cy2TVZSHHz0GqBy=
I2-7HrbblS7Z79o_w8xq5r9WdIFJVlhfShiksP4yK0japXs$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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