Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 23 2023 05:28:27

ACUS01 KWNS 230528
SWODY1
SPC AC 230527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today and through the overnight hours.

....Synopsis...
The synoptic regime over the next 24 hours will be characterized by
the exit of an upper-low off the East Coast and the deepening of a
second, more potent, upper wave across the Southwest. At the
surface, a trailing cold front associated with a deepening cyclone
off the New England coast will migrate east/southeast across FL
through the day. Seasonal low-level moisture and modest lapse rates
near 6 C/km will support upwards of 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, and strong
flow aloft will likely support elongated hodographs with 40-45 knots
of effective bulk shear. However, increasing displacement from
stronger synoptic ascent to the northeast through the day coupled
with the potential for considerable mid-level dry air entrainment
given slim buoyancy profiles limits confidence in the potential for
severe convection.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage through the overnight hours across the southern High Plains
into central TX amid strong height falls aloft and increasing
isentropic ascent in the 925-850 mb layer ahead of the deepening
upper wave. This will lead to sufficient steepening of the 700-500
mb layer lapse rates to support isolated to scattered convection
within the broader stratiform rain regime. Despite increasing
deep-layer shear, buoyancy profiles are expected to remain too
shallow to sustain robust updrafts, which will limit the overall
severe threat.

...Moore/Smith.. 01/23/2023

$$

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