Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 23 2023 00:50:56

ACUS01 KWNS 230050
SWODY1
SPC AC 230049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from
north Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina.  An
isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over the lower MS Valley and this feature will move to the
southern Appalachians tonight.  A band of thunderstorms this evening
along an east-southeastward moving front will continue to push
through north FL and into the Atlantic shelf waters east of the
GA/SC coast.  The 7pm (00 UTC) Jacksonville, FL raob showed weak
buoyancy (700 J/kg MLCAPE) and a strengthening southwesterly wind
profile.  An attendant risk for an isolated damaging gust and/or
brief tornado will remain possible this evening before the
convective line pushes through north FL.  Weakening low-level
convergence and a nocturnally cooling boundary layer farther south
will tend to limit strong thunderstorm potential as the front pushes
through central FL late tonight.

...Smith.. 01/23/2023

$$

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