Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0088
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 23:11:25

ACUS11 KWNS 222311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222310=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-230115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222310Z - 230115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado should
continue for a couple more hours. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a QLCS has intensified over the
past few hours across south-central GA. Current expectations are for
this line to progress eastward across the remainder of
southeastern/coastal GA this evening before moving offshore. One
embedded low-level circulation has already produced a tornado in
south-central GA around 2220Z. A narrow zone of favorable low-level
moisture, weak boundary-layer instability, and sufficient 0-3 km
shear is present ahead of the ongoing activity. This should support
a continued threat for occasional circulations embedded within the
line and perhaps a tornado. Isolated straight-line damaging winds
may occur as well. The limited spatial and temporal extent of the
severe threat both suggest that watch issuance will probably not be
needed, as convection should tend to weaken later this evening as it
moves eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment.

...Gleason/Guyer.. 01/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4rEqUxxVUXGxtCD2uGr4xtFt0lcQ0G8lnfPcdRd1Q43l6aCyKyM6pClSEy-h-Y1JE-9mcs36B=
f0jVl2WkGfF3L3_SA8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31218293 31688283 32028255 32178204 32168146 32028111
            31858094 31658111 31388119 31048140 30828191 30718243
            30748289 31218293=20


=3D =3D =3D
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