Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 19:44:55 ACUS01 KWNS 221944 SWODY1 SPC AC 221943 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL...SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHEAST SC... ....SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible. ....20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the outlook with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity/intensity may increase over the next few hours as convection moves toward northern FL/southeast GA. Stronger heating has resulted in somewhat better destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates across this area. Stronger convection will continue to pose a threat for locally damaging gusts, while moderate speed shear contributes to somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs, supporting rotation and possibly a tornado. The severe threat is expected to diminish this evening. ...Leitman.. 01/22/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023/ ....Synopsis... A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ....Northern Florida into southern South Carolina.. Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper 60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust possible before the confluence band moves offshore. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .