Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 16:52:20

ACUS02 KWNS 221651
SWODY2
SPC AC 221649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

....Synopsis...

A progressive upper-level pattern is expected on Monday as a series
of troughs develop eastward across the CONUS. The first trough,
located over the Midwest and Southeast will shift east/northeast,
moving offshore the Atlantic coast Monday night. A cold front
associated with this system will mainly be offshore the Atlantic
coast Monday morning, with the southern extent of the boundary
arcing across central FL. A few lightning flashes will be possible
across the central/southern FL Peninsula as the front shifts south
through the afternoon. However, weak instability/poor lapse rates
and modest large-scale ascent will preclude severe potential.

The second trough/upper low, located over the Southwest and
northwest Mexico, will pivot east toward the southern
Rockies/northern Mexico. Increasing midlevel moisture on strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, and cooling midlevel
temperatures resulting in a plume of steepening midlevel lapse
rates, will support isolated elevated thunderstorms across parts of
southeast AZ/southwest NM into the southern High Plains and
west-central TX Monday evening into early Tuesday. Severe storms are
not expected with this activity.

...Leitman.. 01/22/2023

$$

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