Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 16:01:22

ACUS01 KWNS 221601
SWODY1
SPC AC 221559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and
southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is
possible.

....Synopsis...
A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift
to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to
approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward
advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy
across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with
deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms
throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

....Northern Florida into southern South Carolina..
Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing
within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into
southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly
eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As
warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the
confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both
increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick
in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern
GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper
60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by
5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely
unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+
kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast
soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and
200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to
organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some
low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust
possible before the confluence band moves offshore.

...Squitieri.. 01/22/2023

$$

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