Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0084
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 13:42:50

ACUS11 KWNS 221342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221341=20
FLZ000-221515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the eastern FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221341Z - 221515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or a
brief tornado remain possible this morning. Watch issuance is still
considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 1330Z, a band of convection is ongoing from near
Panama City southward into the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. Lightning
activity has diminished with the longer-lived line of storms
approaching Panama City, but the Gulf convection has shown modest
intensification over the last hour. Storm vigor will continue to be
limited by weak lapse rates and buoyancy (as noted in the 12Z TLH
sounding), but rather strong deep-layer shear will continue to
support the potential for occasionally organized convection through
the morning, especially in the vicinity of a warm frontal zone that
is advancing slowly inland across the FL Panhandle region.=20=20

Generally unidirectional wind profiles will continue to support a
predominant cluster or linear mode, with an attendant risk of
isolated strong/damaging gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out
with any stronger storm that can favorably interact with the warm
front. With the short-term threat expected to remain limited in
magnitude and areal extent, watch issuance is unlikely.

...Dean/Edwards.. 01/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7pebWv9qp7bpbmTsVYLjDq7u8DoAVq5tnf091L937H2nlVJvzzWI1qNBw6pH-CJu_nndpTxp1=
OVUk2fGUxn5QzZZFfk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30518577 30378472 30108438 29858425 29518453 29478512
            29518558 29718591 30018605 30198600 30518577=20


=3D =3D =3D
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