Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 09:57:50

ACUS48 KWNS 220957
SWOD48
SPC AC 220956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates that an initial significant
surface cyclone will migrate from the Mid South through the upper
Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday
night, with secondary surface cyclogenesis taking place across the
Georgia and Carolina Piedmont into the northern Mid Atlantic coast.
Associated low-level moisture return and forcing for ascent may be
accompanied by extensive convection and embedded thunderstorm
activity spreading from Alabama at the outset of the period through
perhaps much of the southern through middle Atlantic Coast states by
early Thursday.  In the presence of strong deep-layer mean wind
fields and shear, the risk for severe weather may not be negligible,
and at least low severe weather probabilities may eventually be
needed across portions of this region in later outlooks for this
period.  However, based on current available forecast soundings,
thermodynamic profiles with modest to weak mid-level lapse rates and
stable near-surface lapse rates will not be optimal for severe
storms, and it remains unclear where and if severe probabilities
will exceed 15 percent.

Later this coming week through next weekend, the evolution of the
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific becomes more
unclear.  But it still appears that a broadly confluent regime will
evolve east of the Rockies, between a prominent mid-level low and
subtropical high becoming centered across the Hudson Bay and
Caribbean vicinities, respectively.  This does not appear
particularly conducive to significant surface cyclogenesis
accompanied by appreciable severe weather potential.

...Kerr.. 01/22/2023

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