Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 08:31:12

FOUS30 KWBC 220831
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 22 2023 - 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

An upper trough will rotate from the Great Plains up to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys today, while it's associated surface low
strengthens. A line of convection is expected to develop over the
far western panhandle of Florida and continue eastward into
northern Florida Georgia and the Carolina coast. All of this will
be happening within the warm sector of a strengthening surface
wave lifting up from the Gulf. MUCAPE between 500-1000J/Kg, an
axis of heightened frontogenesis, strong low-mid level sheering,
PWATs around 1.5in and rain rates around a half inch may cause
isolated instances of flash flooding in the Panhandle.

Yesterday's Marginal risk area was revised quite a bit in
collaboration with RAH/Raleigh, AKQ/Wakefield and MHX/Moorehead
City to keep the risk area confined to the Carolina coasts. This
is consistent with coastal trends in the latest guidance with
respect to the axis of greatest QPF, as well as high FFGs, low
soil moisture, lack of favorable instability and dynamics. Rain
rates will be below a quarter of an inch and PWAT's will be below
1.5in. through tonight, when a line of showers forced by a cold
front pushes through.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4aget-kvuyTx7R7SVzrGGRq0JquJman67b7dGRc7rTJO=
BhpZ893rMW-0q7Sqj2oAgI5J8ixhqu1CAsH-TBKOygZhWXc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4aget-kvuyTx7R7SVzrGGRq0JquJman67b7dGRc7rTJO=
BhpZ893rMW-0q7Sqj2oAgI5J8ixhqu1CAsH-TBKOMkqQhS0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4aget-kvuyTx7R7SVzrGGRq0JquJman67b7dGRc7rTJO=
BhpZ893rMW-0q7Sqj2oAgI5J8ixhqu1CAsH-TBKOM8eiRQQ$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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