Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 05:11:21 ACUS01 KWNS 220511 SWODY1 SPC AC 220509 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina today. A couple of tornadoes or damaging wind gusts are the main severe threats. ....Synopsis... An open upper trough is apparent across the central CONUS in latest water-vapor imagery, and is expected to undergo slight amplification over the next 24 hours as it moves towards the East Coast. At the surface, a diffuse surface low over the lower MS River Valley will consolidate as it migrates towards the Carolina coast through the day amid strengthening low/mid-level warm advection over the Southeastern states. A warm front initially draped along the Gulf Coast and central FL will lift north into northern FL/southern GA by late morning ahead of an approaching cold front from the west later in the day. Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, will likely be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start of the period. This initial activity will likely be associated with lift along the surface warm front and may be rooted in the boundary layer with access to stronger directional shear in the lowest 1-2 km. While lapse rates throughout the column are expected to be modest (near 6 C/km), strengthening flow aloft will support elongated hodographs favorable for storm organization. This activity is expected to spread into northern FL/southern GA in tandem with the synoptic warm advection regime and may continue to pose a threat for isolated organized cells through the early afternoon hours (especially if temperatures can warm into the low 70s and support more robust, surface-based buoyancy near 500-1000 J/kg). The primary concerns with this convection will generally be damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado given the strong speed shear in the lowest kilometer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into the late afternoon and evening hours as a weak cold front advances eastward across the region. Strong along-boundary flow will most likely favor a linear storm mode. 30-40 knots winds in the lowest 2 km will be easily mixed down within any stronger convective cell or segment, which will pose a threat for damaging winds. A tornado threat will remain possible given persistent strong low-level shear across the warm sector, but will be conditional on a more discrete storm mode and/or bowing segments. Confidence in either of these scenarios is low given the displacement of stronger synoptic lift to the northeast, which is supported by weak convective signals in recent ensemble and machine learning guidance. ...Moore/Smith.. 01/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .