Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 22 2023 00:48:47

ACUS01 KWNS 220048
SWODY1
SPC AC 220046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible overnight along the
central Gulf Coast region.  A damaging gust or tornado cannot be
ruled out.

....Central Gulf Coast...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the
lower MO Valley.  This feature will move east across MO tonight
while a larger-scale mid-level trough will pivot east from the
southern High Plains into the OK/TX/Arklatex vicinity.  A weak area
of low pressure is forecast to develop this evening over southern LA
and move east to the FL Panhandle/AL border by early Sunday morning.
 Strengthening south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (40+ kt) is expected
overnight mainly east of the MS/AL border.  Low-level theta-e
advection and the gradual northward protrusion of a moist/marginally
unstable airmass is expected to penetrate the FL Panhandle late
tonight.  Strong deep-layer shear will support some conditional risk
for a weak supercell or two and perhaps a low risk for a damaging
gust or brief tornado.

...Smith.. 01/22/2023

$$

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