Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 21 2023 19:39:15

ACUS01 KWNS 211939
SWODY1
SPC AC 211937

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHORELINE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible overnight along the
central Gulf Coast region. A damaging gust or tornado cannot be
ruled out.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Day 1 Outlook. Cool surface
temperatures, with dewpoints in the mid 30s-40s F reside along the
Gulf Coast, with richer low-level moisture still displaced well to
the south over water. Strong warm-air advection throughout the night
will gradually moisten and destabilize the boundary layer along the
immediate shoreline, with surface-based (albeit scant) instability
potentially reaching the shore between 09-12Z Sunday morning. Should
surface-based instability be realized over land, a damaging gust or
tornado may accompany one of the stronger storms.

...Squitieri.. 01/21/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023/

....Gulf Coast...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over central KS, with
fast zonal flow across much of the southern tier of states.  At the
surface, the primary baroclinic zone lies offshore of the Gulf Coast
states from south of Houston to near Tampa.  This boundary is
forecast to lift slowly northward today and tonight, approaching the
central Gulf coastline after midnight.  Most models show scattered
showers and thunderstorms in vicinity of the warm front, which may
move ashore late tonight.  Forecast soundings show sufficient deep
layer vertical shear for rotating updrafts and the possibility of a
few strong wind gusts or a tornado.

$$

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