Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 21 2023 09:58:12

ACUS48 KWNS 210958
SWOD48
SPC AC 210956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
After digging into the Southwest, and turning across the southern
Rockies/west Texas vicinity, medium-range models continue to
indicate that a vigorous short wave trough and embedded mid-level
low will accelerate east-northeastward across the southern Great
Plains and northeastward through the lower Mississippi into Ohio
Valleys next Tuesday into Wednesday.  Thereafter, downstream of
persistent mean large-scale ridging across the eastern Pacific, a
deep mid-level low emerging from the Arctic latitudes and a
prominent subtropical high are forecast to shift into the Hudson Bay
and Caribbean/Bahamas/Florida Peninsula vicinities, respectively,
late next week into next weekend.  As this occurs, it appears that a
broadly cyclonic, confluent mid-level flow regime will evolve across
much of the U.S.

In association with this evolving pattern, the most substantive
severe weather potential seems likely to accompany the initial
perturbation as it emerges from the Southwest Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Models continue to indicate that this will be
accompanied by an intensifying west-southwesterly mid-level jet
(including 90-100 kt around 500 mb) across the lower Mississippi
into Tennessee Valleys by late Tuesday night, and significant
surface cyclogenesis from the upper Texas coast vicinity through the
lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

It still generally appears that most rapid deepening of this low may
occur Tuesday evening across and northeast of the lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity, accompanied by an intensifying southerly 850 mb jet
(50-70+ kt) southward through the moistening warm sector.  The
inland advancing plume of warm sector boundary-layer moistening
(including lower/mid 60s F surface dew points) may be narrow, south
of the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent, and characterized by
only weak CAPE.  However, large clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs and strong deep-layer shear probably will still
contribute to an environment conducive to organized severe
convection capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts,
roughly along an axis across southeastern Louisiana through south
central Alabama Tuesday evening through early Wednesday.

...Kerr.. 01/21/2023

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