Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 21 2023 08:17:25

FOUS30 KWBC 210817
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 21 2023 - 12Z Sun Jan 22 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST...

A southern stream trough will amplify as it moves through the
Great Plains today. A surface wave will glide across the Gulf
Coast and direct moisture up the eastern seaboard through Sunday.
Modest southerly mid-level flow will support PWATs in the 1-2"
range with hourly rates of around 0.25-0.5in/hr over portions of
the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. Increased frontogenesis is
expected in the late afternoon hours of Saturday as the Gulf
system moves ashore. Fortunately, soils in the Southeast are
relatively dry, so the 1-2" of forecasted rainfall won't cause
widespread flash flooding concerns. There's still a chance for
isolated flash flooding within convective cells, therefore a broad
marginal risk is in place.

Kebede


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7qb8KslBvfF-9eZ0dP8ndCjUQzaHlI604M9kZ1Mq44Sx=
96WkNRpEFWkPqdUQOukqaiXuShWe-XS-M0NATYKGqvxPr9g$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7qb8KslBvfF-9eZ0dP8ndCjUQzaHlI604M9kZ1Mq44Sx=
96WkNRpEFWkPqdUQOukqaiXuShWe-XS-M0NATYKGJrKWZHo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7qb8KslBvfF-9eZ0dP8ndCjUQzaHlI604M9kZ1Mq44Sx=
96WkNRpEFWkPqdUQOukqaiXuShWe-XS-M0NATYKGbo-wPs8$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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