Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jan 21 2023 05:31:39 ACUS02 KWNS 210531 SWODY2 SPC AC 210530 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southern Georgia, northern Florida and portions of adjacent states Sunday, accompanied by at least some potential for producing tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that amplified, large-scale mid/upper ridging will be maintained across much of the eastern Pacific into North American Pacific coast, with an embedded high centered over the southern mid-latitudes remaining prominent through this period. Downstream of this regime, the westerlies will remain split inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard, with a number of progressive embedded short wave perturbations. Spread among the various models has decreased concerning a number of these features, including one vigorous short wave trough and embedded mid-level low forecast to dig southward across much of the eastern Great Basin. In response to this impulse, a significant preceding short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the lower Missouri/southern Great Plains Sunday through Sunday night. It appears that the progression of this lead short wave probably will occur in phase, to at least some degree, with a short wave impulse within a more zonal branch of westerlies across Canada, and another perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. The interaction of these features, however, remains a source of considerable uncertainty, which may be contributing to the continuing spread among the various models concerning the main short wave as it approaches the mid Atlantic Seaboard. Despite these differences, it still appears that a remnant frontal zone, initially migrating inland across parts of the Southeast early Sunday, will eventually become a focus for significant surface cyclogenesis. In general, guidance suggests that the most substantive deepening will not occur until Sunday night, roughly from the southern Mid Atlantic coast or coastal plain vicinity, offshore toward the southern New England coast through daybreak Monday. ....Southeast... Latest model output indicates that lower/mid 60s surface dew points may spread inland off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, generally across northern Florida into southern Georgia, during the day Sunday. This likely will accompany an initial low amplitude surface frontal wave, in the presence of strengthening south-southwesterly to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow, which may include speeds of 40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Although lapse rates may be generally weak, with the forecast development of at least weak boundary-layer based instability, sizable low-level hodographs with modest clockwise curvature, and strong deep-layer shear, it appears that the environment might become conducive to a couple of discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A pre-cold frontal low-level confluence zone might become the primary focus for the strongest storms, roughly in a corridor across the Tallahassee FL, Valdosta and Waycross GA vicinities during the mid/late afternoon. It is possible that severe weather probabilities could still be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ...Kerr.. 01/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .