Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 21 2023 05:22:10

ACUS01 KWNS 210522
SWODY1
SPC AC 210520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday night
along the central Gulf Coast region.

....Central Gulf Coast...

Latest model guidance suggests an upper low currently located over
northern NM will weaken and become more positively tilted as it
migrates into the Plains/MS Valley. Even so, strong mid-high-level
flow will extend across low latitudes from south TX into the
Carolinas. This feature is forecast to influence the maturation of a
weak surface low that will track across the northwestern Gulf Basin,
then into southeast LA after 22/00z, before advancing into southwest
AL by the end of the period. This evolution should encourage
modified Gulf air mass to advance at least 50-60 miles inland where
mid 60s surface dew points are expected. Low-level warm advection
will drive elevated convection north of the warm front through the
period; however, near-surface-based buoyancy should develop during
the overnight hours as more southerly low-level trajectory
materializes. Forecast soundings along the central Gulf Coast
suggest modest instability and ample shear for supercells. If dew
points can rise to near 67F there is some concern that surface-based
supercells are possible, and along with them a greater risk for wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greatest risk appears to be along the
southern AL Coast into the western FL Panhandle after midnight.

...Darrow/Moore.. 01/21/2023

$$

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