Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 20 2023 17:06:07

ACUS02 KWNS 201706
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. on Saturday.
General thunderstorms are likely across the Gulf Coast states.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will progress eastward across the
central U.S. with a strengthening midlevel jet from TX into the OH
Valley through 12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a compact shortwave trough
will dive southeastward across the Pacific Northwest, providing
cooling aloft and lift.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the East, with
another centered over the Great Basin. A weak inverted trough is
forecast to develop from central OK into TX, but the boundary layer
will remain stable as appreciable moisture remains over the Gulf of
Mexico.

Although stable at the surface across the Southeast, positive
theta-e advection will occur around 850 mb, resulting in lift and
elevated MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. As a result, widespread rain and
thunderstorms are likely, beginning over LA during the day and
spreading eastward overnight. At this time, it is most likely that
SBCAPE remains offshore, limiting any tornado potential.

Despite strong deep-layer shear across the region, forecast
soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft. As such, severe hail is
not forecast.

...Jewell.. 01/20/2023

$$

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