Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 20 2023 10:01:33

ACUS48 KWNS 201001
SWOD48
SPC AC 201000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that blocking within the large-scale
flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific may become a bit more
prominent by the early to middle portion of next week, with broadly
confluent cyclonic mean mid-level flow evolving downstream, across
much of the U.S. through the remainder of the period.  As this
commences, models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave
impulse will emerge from the Southwest and support strong
cyclogenesis across the upper Texas coast vicinity through the lower
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys next Tuesday into Wednesday.

The extent and magnitude of destabilization within the warm sector
of the developing cyclone remain unclear.  Forecast soundings from
both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that an initially cool/stable
boundary layer may be tough to modify.  However, with southerly flow
around 850 mb forecast to intensify to 50-70+ kt within the warm
sector across the central Gulf coast vicinity, there appears a
window of opportunity for the environment to become conducive to
organized severe thunderstorm development, with the potential to
produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Secondary surface frontal wave development across the Georgia into
Carolina Piedmont may provide a focus for organized severe weather
potential Wednesday.  However, details concerning this remain much
more unclear at the present time.

...Kerr.. 01/20/2023

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