Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 20 2023 05:33:32 ACUS01 KWNS 200533 SWODY1 SPC AC 200531 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern New Mexico and far southern Colorado this afternoon as well as across the middle Texas Coast into southern Louisiana mainly late tonight into Saturday morning. ....Synopsis... An upper low currently over the Great Basin is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it migrates east/southeast across the southern Rockies over the next 24 hours. Despite the weakening, the resulting low to mid-level mass response ahead of the wave across the southern Plains will support a gradual return of low to mid-level moisture to the TX/LA Gulf Coast with an associated increase in showers/isolated thunderstorms through early Saturday morning. ....TX/LA Coast... Rain showers are expected to increase in coverage along the TX Gulf Coast during the evening hours as isentropic ascent of parcels emanating from the Gulf increases. This activity will spread east/northeast to the TX/LA coast through 12 UTC Saturday. Weak mid-level lapse rates between 6.5 to 7 C/km will likely be adequate to support enough instability for deeper convective elements embedded within the broader stratiform rain. While strong effective shear will be in place as the subtropic jet strengthens, meager buoyancy profiles will modulate updraft intensities and limit the potential for organized convection. ....New Mexico/southern Colorado... A few weak/transient thunderstorms appear possible across northern NM and southern CO this afternoon as cold mid-level temperatures overspread the region in tandem with the passing upper wave. Combined with meager surface heating and limited, but sufficient, low-level moisture, thermodynamic profiles should allow for enough buoyancy for convection. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain limited, latest ensemble guidance suggests the potential has increased enough to warrant a thunder area. ...Moore/Darrow.. 01/20/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .