Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 19:51:28

FOUS30 KWBC 191951
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 19 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20

An intense line of convection is expected to develop over OH this
afternoon/evening, but severe weather is expected to be the main
hazard, not flash flooding. Cells will be quick moving and it is a
colder environment without anomalous moisture. Nonetheless, some
localized swaths of 0.5"-0.75" of rain within an hour is expected.
This may result in some ponding of water and minor runoff, but the
flash flood risk remains below 5 %.

Rain over southern New England will increase this
afternoon/evening as well. Current model consensus is for up to
1-1.5" of rain, and hourly totals peaking around 0.5" along the
south coast of New England. Neither these rates or totals appear
high enough to warrant a Marginal risk, with the threat of flash
flooding remaining low.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023 - 12Z Sat Jan 21 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20

Chenard

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BTzkipnQnqdRZvPQD4CfCwBUP5fOZbYoBnqVBPGOlPj=
WNJnoLN2rxMVpTnuHdwSvDLTkRk6Xpkaz3SS8VIhvK3SkdI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BTzkipnQnqdRZvPQD4CfCwBUP5fOZbYoBnqVBPGOlPj=
WNJnoLN2rxMVpTnuHdwSvDLTkRk6Xpkaz3SS8VIh3ihSW2E$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BTzkipnQnqdRZvPQD4CfCwBUP5fOZbYoBnqVBPGOlPj=
WNJnoLN2rxMVpTnuHdwSvDLTkRk6Xpkaz3SS8VIhIR3Wwsc$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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