Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0078
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 18:13:57

ACUS11 KWNS 191813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191813=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the middle Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 191813Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for scattered strong/severe wind gusts will
increase this afternoon in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Though
more marginal threats, a tornado or two and large hail may also
occur. A watch is likely in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is pivoting around the main
upper-level low within the Upper-Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows
this feature moving through central Illinois at present. At the
surface, a broad area low pressure is present within the lower Great
Lakes. A secondary cold front is now entering western Indiana with
visible/infrared satellite indicating some gradual deepening of
cumulus along the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the upper
50s F and lower 60s F seem possible ahead of this activity. Even
with these warmer temperatures than guidance forecast this morning,
dewpoints have also mixed out into the low/mid 40s F. The net effect
should should mean limited buoyancy of 250 to at most 500 J/kg
MLCAPE.

The primary concern with convection as it continues to deepen this
afternoon will be strong to severe wind gusts. Storm motions coupled
with 40-50 kts in the lowest 3 km (already sampled by KVWX VWP),
will promote potential for wind gusts of 50-60 kts and isolated
higher gusts possible. In response to the shortwave trough, some
slight backing of surface winds has been noted in central Indiana.
This trend should continue to the east as the wave progresses. As
such, some potential for isolated tornado activity will exist. -25 C
temperatures aloft could also promote marginally severe hail.

...Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6GYkbrOphR-4b6S6sckx4q-huYGwzUrEG0U7culRMmCgMcYd-hkvZDywXkLSu_AaFTL3TT-mU=
BvfjHD-gWiIPsa3Zek$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39228648 39408648 39558646 40368583 41068443 41168338
            40928222 40518188 40008184 39308284 38698412 38468503
            38588588 39228648=20


=3D =3D =3D
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