Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 16:43:28

ACUS02 KWNS 191643
SWODY2
SPC AC 191641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the middle Texas Coast into
southern Louisiana mainly late Friday night into Saturday morning.

....Synopsis...
A prominent upper low will move across the Four Corners area and
toward the central High Plains by 12Z Saturday, with a broad belt of
strong mid to high level flow from the southern Plains to the Mid
Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a stable air mass will exist due to
high pressure extending from the Pacific Northwest across the Plains
and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, a stationary front will
extend roughly from Brownsville TX to Tampa FL. Minimal northward
progress of this boundary is forecast Friday night, with a stable
surface air mass remaining along the immediate Gulf Coast.

Rain is expected to expand in coverage across the middle to upper TX
Coast during the afternoon as moistening occurs aloft, with very low
chances of any lightning due to warm midlevel temperatures/poor
lapse rates. The greatest potential for thunderstorms will exist
overnight into southern LA. Here, forecast soundings show a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE rooted just above 850 mb, and while strong
deep-layer shear will exist, poor lapse rates should preclude any
severe hail threat.

Elsewhere, scattered convective showers may occur over parts of the
Four Corners region and across northern NM during the afternoon, as
heating contributes to very weak instability beneath steep lapse
rates aloft. However, sporadic flashes with this weak convection is
expected to remain below the general thunderstorm outlook threshold.

...Jewell.. 01/19/2023

$$

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