Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 16:23:59

ACUS01 KWNS 191623
SWODY1
SPC AC 191622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO...

....SUMMARY...
Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern
Indiana and move rapidly east across Ohio this afternoon into early
evening. Scattered severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph are most likely
between 3 to 7 PM EST in western to central Ohio.

....Eastern IN and OH...
A potent mid-level vorticity maximum over IL, embedded within the
broader central CONUS trough, will eject east into OH through this
evening. This feature will aid in sharpening an associated surface
cold front that will rapidly progress east. Low-topped thunderstorms
are expected to initiate across eastern IN towards early to
mid-afternoon in a broken arc along the front. Within the exit
region of an intense mid-level jet, this convection is expected to
race east across OH through the afternoon. While SBCAPE will likely
be meager, holding at or below 500 J/kg, nearly full insolation
across the Lower to Middle OH Valley will yield steep 0-3 km lapse
rates. This should support downward momentum transport of 50+ kt
low-level winds as convection matures. Some 12Z HREF members
(HRW-ARW, HRRR, and NAM-Nest) suggest boundary-layer max winds may
reach 65-70 kts within rear inflow, supporting peak surface wind
gusts across western to central OH. The arcing convective band will
weaken after sunset as surface-based instability dwindles, but
strong gusts may persist until convection dissipates in the western
to central PA vicinity.

...Grams/Flournoy/Gleason.. 01/19/2023

$$

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