Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 12:32:48

ACUS01 KWNS 191232
SWODY1
SPC AC 191231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OH...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening across Ohio.

....OH area this afternoon/evening...
In the wake of early morning rainfall, some clearing is expected
during the day from IN into OH.  Residual boundary-layer dewpoints
in the 40s, surface temperatures warming into the 50s, and cooling
midlevel temperatures/steepening low-midlevel lapse rates will
result in SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg across OH this afternoon.
Low-topped thunderstorm development is expected in a band near the
IN/OH border by early-mid afternoon, along a surface cold front and
in advance of a midlevel trough moving from eastern KS/western MO
this morning to the OH Valley by this evening.  The convection is
expected to move quickly eastward across OH this afternoon, with an
attendant threat for damaging winds given the steepening lapse rates
and potential for downward transport of 50+ kt flow in the lowest
1-2 km.  The convective band is expected to gradually weaken with
eastern extent late this evening/early tonight into western PA where
buoyancy will diminish and a stable layer will persist near the
ground.

...Thompson/Dean.. 01/19/2023

$$

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