Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 09:24:16

ACUS48 KWNS 190924
SWOD48
SPC AC 190922

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern
early D4/Sunday will feature troughing from the Upper Midwest into
the southern Plains, ridging across the High Plains, and another
trough from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. This
trough/ridge/trough pattern is expected to persist through D4/Sunday
as the deep eastern upper trough moves across the eastern CONUS and
off the Eastern Seaboard and the western trough continues through
the Great Basin while maturing.

A surface low associated with the eastern upper trough will likely
move from southern AL quickly northeastward through the Carolinas on
D4/Sunday. Modest low-level moisture and resulting buoyancy may
precede this low, supporting the potential for thunderstorms.
Vertical shear will likely be strong enough to support severe
storms, but uncertainty regarding buoyancy currently limits
predictability.

The western trough, which is forecast to be a closed cyclone by
early D5/Monday, is expected to continue eastward across the
Southwest and the southern Plains. Both run-to-run and
model-to-model variability exists regarding the speed of this
eastward progression, limiting forecast confidence on when this
system will impact the southern Plains and Southeast. Despite the
difference in timing, guidance has been consistent with keeping the
moisture return confined to the western and central Gulf Coast
before more inland penetration occurs later over GA and the
Carolinas. Predictability is still too low to introduce any areas,
but some severe potential may exist along the Gulf Coast early next
week.

...Mosier.. 01/19/2023

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