Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 08:01:16

ACUS03 KWNS 190801
SWODY3
SPC AC 190800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas Saturday morning
across the Southeast states during the day, and into portions of
northern Florida/southern Georgia early Sunday morning.

....Synopsis...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over the southern
High Plain early Saturday morning, with strong mid-level flow
stretching from its base eastward/northeastward through the
Mid-Atlantic. This cyclone is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it does. By early
Sunday morning, this system will likely extend across the Mid-MS
Valley.

Favorable low-level moisture will be displaced south of this
shortwave trough, with 60s surface dewpoints expected to stay
offshore. This lack of low-level moisture will preclude
surface-based storms, but persistent warm-air advection is expected
to support elevated thunderstorms from southeast TX Saturday morning
across the Southeast states during the day, and into portions of
northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning. Vertical shear will be
strong enough to support organized storms, but limited buoyancy
should keep the severe potential low.

...Mosier.. 01/19/2023

$$

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