Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 19 2023 07:10:46

FOUS30 KWBC 190710
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 19 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20

An axis of moderate to heavy precipitation should develop over New
York State (beginning after 15Z) and southern New England
(beginning after 21Z), coincident with an area of overlapping low-
to mid-level frontogenesis.  Precipitable water values should be
0.5-1" in most spots.  Both surface-based an MU CAPE should be
negligible, perhaps 100 J/kg.  Hourly totals should be limited to
~0.5" maximum considering the above, generally below 3 hourly
flash flood guidance and a bit below urban area sensitivity
thresholds, and some of the heavier precip may fall as ice or snow
especially in central/northern New York.  At this time, any
flood/flash flood issues should be isolated at best (<5% coverage).
=20
Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023 - 12Z Sat Jan 21 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20

Roth


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!56UZ-k3WCorl9Rut8aX6L6v5T2XoHHylB_2Qb4WcavMB=
IuP39-syvUr_N0aZLYZy8Dy6-cLc_En1OrR2z1eTv85bafc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!56UZ-k3WCorl9Rut8aX6L6v5T2XoHHylB_2Qb4WcavMB=
IuP39-syvUr_N0aZLYZy8Dy6-cLc_En1OrR2z1eTFF_5U4M$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!56UZ-k3WCorl9Rut8aX6L6v5T2XoHHylB_2Qb4WcavMB=
IuP39-syvUr_N0aZLYZy8Dy6-cLc_En1OrR2z1eTCHubWW0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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